Almond Market 2024: US Exports Decline, Australia Surges, and Global Trends Impact UAE
The global almond market is experiencing notable shifts as we move through the 2024 season. With weather challenges, fluctuating demands, and supply chain disruptions, the leading producers—California and Australia—are seeing diverse outcomes in their export markets. The UAE, as a key almond importer, has seen increased shipments, providing both challenges and opportunities for regional traders.
US Almond Exports Take a Hit
California, the world’s largest almond producer, is facing sluggish exports this season, particularly to key European markets. According to the Almond Board of California’s (ABC) latest report, US exports have declined by 14%, from 305 million pounds last season to 264 million pounds in the current 2024/25 season. Europe, especially Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands, has significantly reduced its imports. Germany saw a 55% drop, while Spain’s imports plummeted by 37%.
However, some markets are thriving for US almonds. The UAE has seen an 11% increase in imports, and Turkey recorded an 88% surge in shipments. India, while still a major market, has experienced a slight 1.3% dip in imports.
Key US Export Markets (2023/24 vs. 2024/25):
Weather Woes Impact California’s Harvest
California’s almond harvest for 2024 is facing uncertainty due to extreme weather conditions. Hot spells in early October have raised concerns about yield quality, especially in the southern regions of the state. Though northern California remains optimistic, the overall crop size is expected to range between 2.65 and 2.8 billion pounds, slightly below initial forecasts.
Australia’s Almond Boom
In contrast, Australia is setting export records, with a 16.2% year-on-year increase in shipments. Australia’s almond exports totaled 70,990 tonnes in the first half of the 2024/25 season, with a significant surge in demand from China, where imports doubled to 33,805 tonnes. The growth is largely driven by favorable pricing under the free trade agreement with China. Exports to the UAE also grew by 134%, indicating the Middle Eastern market's growing demand for Australian almonds.
Australia’s Key Export Markets:
Price Trends and Market Outlook
Global almond prices are fluctuating due to supply and demand dynamics. US almond prices have risen slightly, from under $1.90 per pound last year to around $2.10, driven by lower inventories and increased demand in some markets. The US carryover inventory has dropped by 37%, putting upward pressure on prices.
In Australia, favorable export conditions and increased demand from China have strengthened market prices. However, declining demand from other markets, such as India and Vietnam, has somewhat balanced the upward trend.
Impact on UAE Market
The UAE, a growing hub for almond imports, is benefiting from both the US and Australia’s diverse market conditions. While US shipments to the UAE have risen, Australian exports are also on the rise, with the UAE seeing a 134.7% increase. UAE traders should capitalize on these supply opportunities while monitoring price trends to lock in favorable deals.
FAQs: Almond Market 2024
1. Why are US almond exports declining?
US almond exports are down due to weaker demand from key European markets, especially Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands. Quality concerns from weather conditions in California have also impacted the supply chain.
2. Why are almond prices rising?
Almond prices, particularly in the US, are rising due to a significant reduction in carryover inventory and increased export demand. Australia is also seeing price increases driven by higher exports to China.
3. How has the weather affected California’s almond crop?
Unusually hot weather in early October has impacted almond yields in California, particularly in the southern regions. While the crop size is estimated between 2.65 to 2.8 billion pounds, quality concerns persist.
4. What is driving Australia’s almond export growth?
Australia's almond exports have surged, largely due to strong demand from China and favorable pricing from the free trade agreement. In-shell almond shipments to China have more than doubled in 2024.
5. How can UAE traders benefit from these trends?
With increased shipments from both the US and Australia, UAE traders should take advantage of favorable supply conditions while closely monitoring price trends to secure the best deals.
Conclusion: Navigating the 2024 Almond Market
As the almond market experiences shifting dynamics in production, exports, and prices, UAE traders are in a strong position to leverage the increased supply from the US and Australia. With prices fluctuating and demand rising in key markets, staying informed and proactive will be key to navigating the global almond trade successfully.
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