The global peanut market is experiencing notable shifts as we move through 2024. From production dynamics in India to supply challenges in South America, various factors are influencing peanut prices and availability. In this article, we delve into the current trends, emerging challenges, and market predictions for the peanut industry, providing valuable insights for traders and stakeholders.
The peanut market in India is poised for significant changes, driven by demand fluctuations and weather conditions. India, a major player in the global peanut industry, is witnessing a polarized market. Key factors such as subtle yet continuous demand from Southeast Asian countries and competition from Mozambique are influencing the market dynamics.
Recent extreme weather events have severely impacted India's agriculture sector, including peanut production. Deadly flash floods due to sudden heavy rains have inundated India’s capital, replacing one of the worst heat waves in Delhi’s history with temperatures soaring well above 40 degrees Celsius. These erratic weather patterns, exacerbated by the climate crisis, pose significant risks to agriculture, water, and energy sectors.
Heavy rains in Uttar Pradesh have led to lower-than-expected peanut inflow, creating market uncertainty. Farmers are unable to store supplies due to the adverse conditions, prompting them to bring volumes to the market immediately. This situation is likely to create downward pressure on prices, potentially dropping by 3-4%.
The Indian peanut market is experiencing regional polarization. In the Banaskantha spot market, traders and stockists are buying high-quality 80-90 count Java nuts at attractive prices, while such trends are not observed in other regions. In West Bengal, yields are good, but local traders assert that 70% of the crop will be exported directly, limiting domestic availability.
As the festive season approaches, domestic demand for peanuts is expected to rise, adding another layer of complexity to the market. Exporters will need to closely monitor these developments to make informed decisions.
According to the International Nut and Dried Council (INC), global in-shell peanut production is expected to remain stable at around 50 million metric tons for 2024/2025. Despite a predicted 2% decline in overall production, China will retain its position as the leading producer.
The Indian market is polarized, with varying regional prices and demand pressures. The festive season will likely drive up domestic demand, adding another layer of complexity.
Production Forecasts by Country
As we move through 2024, the peanut market is set to undergo significant changes. Traders and stakeholders should stay vigilant, monitoring weather conditions, demand fluctuations, and regional trends. By leveraging platforms like Momex, which offers real-time updates and verified suppliers, traders can navigate these challenges effectively and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
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