The global walnut market is witnessing fresh turbulence as strong demand in the United States and tightening domestic inventories spark a new wave of price increases.
In recent months, the U.S. market traditionally a key driver in global nut trade dynamics has seen a surge in consumption, particularly from the snack and bakery industries. This heightened demand, combined with lower carryover stocks from 2024, has put upward pressure on walnut prices worldwide.
Interestingly, even though California the world’s largest walnut-producing region reported an 18% increase in production for 2025, the residual effects of last year’s shortages have kept the market tight. Many U.S. buyers, facing limited local supply and delayed shipments, have turned to Chinese exporters to fill the gap. As a result, China’s domestic walnut prices have also climbed steadily over the past few weeks.
Market analysts note that this trend could persist throughout the final quarter of 2025, especially if trade policies between the U.S. and China remain unchanged. Any shifts in tariffs, shipping costs, or export regulations could further amplify volatility in the months ahead.
For now, exporters and importers alike are watching the market closely, balancing between short-term opportunities and the risks of potential overpricing.
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